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Friday, October 23, 2009

Forex Scalping Strategy

Forex scalping is the art of using high leverage and a large number of short term trades to steadily increase an account. Usually, only 1 to 5 pips are targeted for each trade. This type of trading appeals greatly to day traders and those looking to minimize the risk involved in trading currencies. Next to money management, "risk control" is the single most important trait to a surviving (and thriving) currency trader. The small amount of time that is spent in the market limits much of the risk in exposure in comparison to a longer term system. Also, the freedom involved in a speedy Forex scalping system in such a liquid market is a "magnet" that drives many traders from other markets to try their hand in currency. A disciplined and steady scalper could seamlessly double or triple an account, and spend only a fraction of the time in the market as a common day trader.

Forex Scalping - The Problem

Though Forex scalping may seem like a preverbal "holy grail" at first glance, there are still many unseen hurdles that surround the controversial method of trading. If you do wish to add scalping to your trading toolbox, it is extremely important to pick a broker who can support a scalpers's system. You will quickly find that many brokers do not allow scalp trading, as the method of quickly entering and exiting trades may actually cause the broker to lose money at the dealing desk. Forex scalping also does not give the broker a means to trade against their clients which is a way of money making for them. Out of the hundreds of online Forex brokers, only a handful support scalping. It is a very thin line between scalping and short term trading. Generally if you hold trades for a minute or less, you may have problems with brokers. They could warn you and then if you continue shut down your account. However, if you trade in minutes or more, most likely you will not have problems with dealing desk brokers. Non dealing desk (ECN) brokers allow scalping where you can hold a position for seconds however the minimum to open an account is higher ($2,000 and above).

Forex Scalping Strategy

Effective Forex scalping strategies take advantage of extremely slight price fluctuations (sometimes only 1-3 pips) many times in order to steadily build an account. Because of the smaller number of pips gained per trade, larger than normal leverages play a key role in a successful Forex scalping strategy. By leveraging much more than a standard day trader in a liquid environment, a very skilled scalp trader is able to make just as much money as the day trader in a shorter period of time. However, this is an obvious double-edged sword. The market can just as easily move against you on a high leverage, which could produce substantial blows to your account.

Also, it is important to take into consideration the physical and mental speed of a trader who will only stay in the market for seconds to minutes. Executing a scalping strategy by hand can be extremely difficult considering the quick amount of time you must be in and out of the market for your strategy to be affective. Many successful Forex scalping strategies are built to be automated; the rules to the system are coded into a trading platform to automatically perform scalp trades around the clock. Though it is completely possible to trade a Forex scalping strategy manually, the majority of today's traders would agree that automating the process based on a set of rules would be the best way to ensure speed and reliability. When choosing a platform to automate your scalp strategy, it is extremely important to stick with those platforms that allow the execution of your system on every tick (such as MetaTrader 4). This ensures that your entrances and exits will be on a per-tick basis, and will give you a much higher probable rate of success than those platforms who will execute your code more periodically.

To understand the full challenge of scalping as a trading style, consider this: hard work and small gains accumulated over a decent period of time could easily be wiped out with one large loss. Finding a balance between profit levels and size of acceptable losses presents the most difficult challenge to scalpers' strategy.

Forex scalping can be a good method of growing a managed Forex account quickly, but should not be looked at as the "holy grail" of trading. Most brokers do not support scalping, and a consistently profitable Forex scalping strategy can be very difficult to engineer. However, if much time and effort is spent in system optimization and setting up a good relationship with a scalp supporting broker, the benefits could be well worth the time spent.

DISCOVER 2 STRATEGIES FOR MAKING OVER USD2000 WEEKLY AS A BREAKOUT FOREX TRADER

How to approach news breakout: this occurs upon the release of major economic announcements and can sometimes trigger moves of over 70 pips within few minutes.

When a major fundamental announcement is to be released, few minutes to this time we see the market moving in a very choppy sideways or counter trend. During this time, breakout traders who straddle the news position themselves well ahead of the said news event to take advantage of the initial price spike. Note that not all news event support this strategy. Using this strategy, you ay only need to be in the market for about 5minutes and you are out with profit or a little loss.

You use this strategy by first of all knowing the time of the news release using the economic calendars then find out if the news event supports this strategy. Having done the above, you then go to your platform 5 or 3 minutes before the news event and set up your orders.

The news event that supports this strategy are interest rate statements from US EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. EUROPE- EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY. And EUR/USD. UNITED KINGDOM-GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, NEWZEALAND AND CANADA. Other news events that supports this strategy are non-farm payroll from US , unemployment rate and employment change from Canada and Australia, German Zew economic sentiment, BOE MPC meeting minutes e.t.c.. the minimum each of this news events can generate is 30pips within 10 minutes so do not be greedy with profits. If you take only 20pips per event on a standard account, with just 10 events per week that will give you $2000 per week. Also try factoring in risk.

Technical breakout; this kind of breakout occurs without any news event in sight. It can happen during the opening hours or close of the market. Before the opening of certain currency pairs and market sessions, the market is usually in a very choppy mood and quiet too. During this time the big moves are being planned and you should learn to move along with them. Quite often the market would have determined the direction it wants to move before it becomes quiet attempting to determine where to breakout.

Send a blank mail to wealthklub@yahoo.com to get a free report on a trading system that generates an average of 500pips monthly plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger.

Successful Forex Rading System

Quote: "Much of the time, even professionals don't have a clear picture of what is going on, but they have learned to have the patience to wait for select, specific setups. You must learn to trade on only the most recognizable and reliable patterns." from the "Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies".

The most important rule of systematic trading is to take each and every trading signal that your system generates. Only by taking all the signals at the time they are generated can you count on replicating the past performance of your system. If you have the slightest suspicion that you will not be able to take all the signals - either due to the timing of the signals or your busy schedule - you should arrange for the signals to be automatically traded.

At the end of the day, a forex trading system just like the money management system serves to protect yourself from your own destructive tendencies which very often mask themselves as the "well-meaning" hunches and gut responses. This doesn't mean that you shouldn't trust your instincts - only that you should base your trades on them only if you can eliminate emotions from your decisions. This is because a trading system is a method to profit from other traders' emotional instability, therefore, if you do not control your own emotions you will not be able to profit from any system. Removing the emotions from your manual trading can take years (!!!)- so it can be more practical and profitable to simply autotrade your system.

Even if you start your currency trading career by following a professionally created forex trading system you will receive full satisfaction from the trading - in terms of profit and self-actualization - only if you make and trade a successful system of your own. One of the best books which can help you to start this fascinating journey is "Mechanical Trading Systems: Pairing Trader Psychology with Technical Analysis" by Richard L. Weissman.

Quote: " In the meantime, it cannot be emphasized enough that, at the very least, genuine success in trading markets involves the adoption of a trading system. Without the discipline of such a system, the very best efforts are likely to be doomed to failure." Tony Plummer in his book "Forecasting Financial Markets: The Psychology of Successful Investing".

There are no certainties in the forex trading, since the future will never be exactly the same as the past. There are only probabilities, which you can systematically put in your favour with the help of a established forex trading system.

13 SECRETS THAT GENERATED 992 PIPS NET PROFIT IN 15 FOREX TRADING DAYS

There is no hype in this headline. This is the absolute truth. The following 13 secrets generated 992 pips net profits for me in 15 trading days.
1 do not over expose your account .maintain an account exposure of between 10% and 30%.

2 Always trust god to find and join the trend early. Always learn to test the strength of the trend with the ADX.

3 Understand your best entry and exit points using pivot points and/or fibonnacci retracements

4 Understand the key japanese candlesticks Reversal patterns.

5 Know when the market is down or when the trend is weak and trade accordingly or stay away.

6 Only use take profit according to predetermined market potential.

7 Buy in oversold markets: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this

8 sell in overbought market: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this.

9 Never entertain fear even when the market moves against you. If you have a good trading system., it will surely come back in your favour.

10 Do not be greedy: Show contentment in all things and this demon will be far from you.

11 Do not over trade: Learn to draw a line between over trading and fear.

12 Always pray before making a trading decision: There is always a guiding light from god if only you will trust him.

!3 Rely on the holy spirit for guidance. He is very dependable and will never leave noy forsake you if you surrender the battle to him.

Send a blank e mail to wealthklub@yahoo.com to Get a free report on a powerful forex trading system that generates an average of 500 pips($5000 on a standard account) monthly plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger

15 Major Day Trading Hints

The reports of the society making immeasurable gains in stocks markets have been delivered in newspapers around the world.So the first timer investors have been attracted to the stock market. Day trading is one of the organizations gaining in demand with investors. But this day trading has full of risks. However you can make immeasurable gains in day trading,you are also expected to expend huge money.On the other hand, if you want to do day trading the following tips and guidelines are here to make you succeed:

Who is day trader?

A person who actively associate within stock market and buys and sells frequently in a day to make quick income is called a day trader.


What are the following tips to succeed in day trading? Here are the 15 list of tips to guide you to succeed:


1. Study the fundamentals of the system like the functioning of the market, schedule to buy and sell, which way the stocks will be operate, and the long and short calls.You consider also learn to take care of the profits while cutting down the losses.

2. In view of excel in day trading is a time consuming process, apply the trading platform available on the trading websites before you actually start.

3. Avoid the thought of making losses let you to scare. Use strategies like stop orders to reduce your losses.

4. Do not worry, If you suffer some loss, as it is a portion of the process.

5. Stop trading, once you have earned your expected profit. Do not hunger after more money and throw away your profit.

6. Assuming that the market does not meet your expectations on each and every particular day, do not trade.

7. During the time that your experience in day trading increases, you gain the ability to foreknow the direction in which the stock price moves. But avoid to go for the lowermost or the topmost stocks.

8. If you find it crucial to decide in which way the market is going, do not trade but just paused and wait.

9. Keep up a record of the results of the day trading. It give permission you to learn the things which are effective, as well as ineffective.

10. Acquire some information about buying and selling tactics of successful day traders. These traders commonly sell when there is good news and buy when there is bad news.

11. Being aloof and professional is the main characteristics of being trader and don't be emotional.

12. Have confidence on your instincts as rely upon excessively on the analysis means skipping some good trading chances.

13. Be trained and use most important strategies to trade.

14. Concentrate and/or focus yourself only on a selected stocks. Sharpen your attention on various stocks will make it difficult for you to track the movement of each stock.

15. Educate yourself in a new trading strategies daily and use them to your benefit.

How to develop a profitable forex trading stratey

Before you plunge into one of the most liquid, unpredictable and profitable markets in the world, there are some things that you should know about before putting your money in the hands of a forex broker. When money is involved, there are a lot of things you should consider, and these are the key to developing the best Forex strategy, for you to start making a profit. For instance, there is a great deal of money management that must be put in place before you run off with a lot of hope in your pocket. Hope is not going to pay the bills. Your money is and you need to know when and how much of your money you are going to use.

Always set yourself some realistic targets and limits to ensure that you do not spend too much money. Also, do not fall prey to the gambling endemic that is afflicting many Forex traders - this means they simply cannot stop trading no matter how much they loose and they often make irrational decisions in order to 'win' back the money that they have lost. Set yourself some parameters and stick to them, you will regret the fact that you account has run dry and you start to owe the brokerage a sum of money. Also, always have some risk capital on hand so that when things do go wrong, you will be able to bail yourself out. The total sum of your investment and risk capital should be an amount that you are able to afford.

Nobody should go into trading with their life savings in tow. The capital you put into the commodities market should be capital you can spend and if you do lose, will not have an adverse affect on your life style. That said, Forex trading is all about watching market patterns and market psychology. Unlike normal and traditional commodities trading, many people would say that the Forex market falls into a pattern when it comes to either a crisis or an upheaval within currencies. Issues like inflation, political violence and economic decisions can adversely affect the performance of the currency pair you have chosen. But there is always a pattern and this pattern is the structure of many trading strategies of experienced investors. For example, you must learn that there are many 'safe' currencies in the market that investors flock to when there is wind of a calamity in global economies. This is just one aspect.

Market psychology is ruled by major decisions my collective moves in the market. Because of the fact that huge multicontinental banks are the biggest driving forces within the FX market, they have pre planned moves when situations come up. Your job as an investor is to read the signs and react accordingly. The good thing about Forex is that is a very liquid market, so you can pull out any time you want - or on the flip side can invest in a click of a mouse. With these in mind when investing, you will have the key to developing the best Forex trading strategy.

Knowing the Ins and Outs of Chandelier Exit

Have you ever heard of a stop placement strategy that trails stop based on previous 'high' points? It is called Chandelier exit as it hangs down from the high point or the ceiling of our trade, just as a chandelier hangs from a room ceiling. The distance, which is usually calculated from the high point to the trailing stop; could also be calculated in dollars or in contract based points. However, the value of this trailing stop moves upward very promptly as higher highs is reached.

The Chandelier Exit, which has a trailing stop from either the highest high of the trade or the highest close of the trade, is best measured in units of Average True Range (ATR). One of the many factors leading to use ATR for measuring the distance from the high to our stop is that, it is pertinent across markets and is adaptive to changes in unpredictability.

The essence of this calculative measure is that, even on expansion and contraction of trading ranges, our stop will automatically adjust and move to the apt level, thereby, constantly staying in tune with changing market conditions. Chandelier Exit is one of the most tried exit methodology used across a varied portfolio of futures markets to generate profitable test results.

It is imperative that the changes in unpredictability can curtail or stretch the distance to the actual stop, since the highs used to hang the Chandelier move only upward. However, in order to witness less fluctuation in the stop distance, you can use a longer moving average to calculate Average True Range. In other ways, shorter moving average is required, in case you want the stop placement to be more adaptive to fluctuating market conditions.

When short averages for the ATR is used; brief periods of small ranges can bring the stops too close, abnormally resulting in premature exit. To avoid this, you can have a short and highly adaptive ATR while calculating a short average and a longer average and using the average that produces the widest stop.

Although Chandelier Exit differs from Channel Exit (which trails a stop based on previous 'low' points), the combination of both, where the trade is initialized by the trailing Channel Exit and then adding the Chandelier Exit, after the price has moved away from the entrance point, will help in making the open trade lucrative. Here the Channel Exit is fastened at a low point and does not move up as new profits are accomplished. At the same time, it is necessary to have the Chandelier Exit at the right position so that the exits are never too far away from the high point of the trade.

The fundamentals behind combining the exit techniques, Channel and Chandelier exit is that, while Channel Exit as a suitable stop that very steadily rises at the commencement of the trade, switching over to Chandelier Exit is necessary to ensure better exit that protects more of our profit. This feature makes Chandelier Exit one of the most sought after rational exits from the profitable trades.

Why "Follow-Through" Is Imperative For Your Market Position

Endurance is counted as a high merit in great accomplishments, especially in forex market. Great men frequently advise to be consistent in big changes of market tendencies and "Follow Through" in breakthroughs.

If you have made a price change one day and you get success out of it then you should continue your endeavors in the same route in coming days and this trading movement is called the "Follow Through".

But this kind of breakthrough is not that much simple. Market does not accept big changes frequently. It goes back over those trends present previously in the trade and at the end of the day when all is going to end, forex prices repeat the same trend seen some days before.

Nobody is a faultless and ideal merchant. All the brokers and traders constantly discover a lot about the trading and aim not to repeat their past mistakes and blunders. I can give you many instances about my learning and it all happens when you don't show patience and consistency. When you don't wait and take a great step thinking it would be a huge success, but it is not all what we think.

I was planning about the corn market and had a keen eye on it for a long time. I was waiting and hanging around for the market to show a big change in a persistent downside trend of the prices and counteract it. One day there appeared a little upside move in the corn price but was not near to counteract it. I was out of my workplace for coming days and was unable to meet my broker or the info about the rates. I made a call to my dealer and ordered corn for a buy-stop at a price which was much higher than the downside trend. It did so because I thought if it worked, it would be a very tough change in the price to counteract the constant downside trend and it will indicate an uphill breakthrough in the every day price bar map. That day I had some jinx and blip in my mind which was disapproving my decision and asking me to take time and "follow through" the price tendency to make the price break sure. Next morning the corn's price inclination was high enough to strike my end and made me "in" the market. But it was not for a long time. Corn rates again overturned and threw my corn prices out soon.

The perception after observation is always true. But this mistake taught me the significance of patience and consistency to give the market enough time to indicate follow through movement to make a prospective trading arrangement sure. But a dealer also has some risk of absence and getting advantage of a big price change if he keeps on waiting. But it is more sensible to be cautious and wait for the market to verify the follow through movements in the coming days.

Sometimes market shows a relaxing session in the price movement and then verifies the great changes in the coming days. But mostly the follow through movement is going to come in the next session if expected.

Friday, October 16, 2009

The Foreign Exchange Market

The Foreign Exchange Market goes by many names—Currency Exchange, Foreign Exchange, Forex, FX—but no matter the term, it is simply the trading of one currency against another. Currencies are traded in the form of currency pairs with pricing based on exchange rates and spreads established by participants in the forex market.
History

The FX market is an inter-bank or inter-dealer network first established in 1971 when many of the world’s major currencies moved towards floating exchange rates. It is considered an over-the-counter (OTC) market, meaning that transactions are not conducted on an exchange like some equity stock markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or the Chicago Options Board Exchange (CBOE) where options and futures are traded. OTC trades exist as agreements made between two parties that agree to trade via telephone or electronic network.
As FX trading has evolved, several locations have emerged as market leaders. Currently, London, England contributes the greatest share of transactions with over 32% of the total trades. Other trading centers—listed in order of volume— are New York, Tokyo, Zurich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Paris, and Sydney.
Because these trading centers cover most of the major time zones, FX trading is a true 24-hour market that operates five days a week. For example, as a trader in New York, you have access to the FX market starting Sunday evening when the market opens in Sydney for the start of the trading week. Trading centers around the globe then come online until New York closes at 4:30 PM EST. Of course, by this time, Sydney will have reopened for the next trading day so you can continue to trade around the clock until the New York close on Friday.
Why Do We Need to Exchange Currencies?

Individuals and organizations exchange currencies whenever they require foreign goods or services. A trading market has developed around these needs, and hedging practices refined.
Historically, the forex trading market centered around central banks, commercial financial institutions, and multinational corporations. However, with the advent of web-based trading applications such as OANDA’s FXTrade, small retail traders and even individuals now participate directly in the forex market on equal footing with these large institutions.
Forex Market Size

The FX market has become the world’s largest financial market, and it is not uncommon to see over $3 trillion US traded each day. By contrast, the NYSE— the world’s largest equity market with daily trading volumes in the $60 to $80 billion dollar range—is positively dwarfed when compared to the FX market. Even when combining the US bond and equity markets, total daily volumes still do not come close to the values traded on the currency market.
The Most Commonly Traded Currencies
The sheer volume of trading completed every day in the FX market makes it by far the most liquid and most efficient market available. Because of the magnitude of the volumes traded, it is virtually impossible for individuals or companies to influence the exchange rate of the more commonly-traded currencies through any form of open market operations. No single individual has the resources required to manipulate pricing through targeted buying or selling on the market.
There are many currencies which you can trade and OANDA currently supports more than thirty currency pairs. The vast majority of trades however consist of pairs involving just these seven currencies (based on 2006 figures):

Choosing a Forex Broker

As you may already know, foreign exchange (Forex/FX) is an unregulated market that is not traded on an exchange, which means that prices you see and get from one broker could vary from those of another broker. There are mainly two types of brokers. One type is an ECN (Electronic Communications Network) and another a Market-Maker.

Market-makers "make" or set the prices on their systems based on what they think is best for themselves as the counter-party. This is because every time you sell, they must buy, and when you buy, they must sell to you. This is why they can give you a fixed spread since they are setting both the bid and the ask price. Many of them will then try to "hedge" or "cover" your order by passing it on to someone else; however, some may decide to hold your order, and thus trade against you. This can result in a conflict of interest between the retail trader (you) and the market-maker.

ECNs, on the other hand, pass on prices from several banks and market-makers, as well as from the other traders in the ECN, and display the best bid/ask prices based on these input. This is why sometimes you can get no spread on ECNs, especially in very liquid currency pairs. How do ECNs make money then? They do so by charging you a fixed commission for each transaction.

Here are some of the pros and cons of ECNs and market-makers:

Market-Makers

Pros:

  • Usually give free charting software and news feed
  • Prices can be "smoother" and less volatile than ECN prices (this can be a con if you are scalping or trading very short term)
  • Often have a more user-friendly trading and analysis interface

Cons:

  • They may trade against you. In that case, there will be a conflict of interest between you and them
  • The price they offer you may be worse than what you could get on an ECN
  • It is possible that they may trigger stops or not let your trade reach your profit target levels by manipulating prices
  • During news, there will usually be a large amount of slippage; their systems may also lock up or not allow order placing during times of high volatility
  • Many of them discourage scalping and put scalpers on "manual execution" which means their orders may not get filled at the price they want

Examples of some market-makers:

http://www.goforex.net/forex-broker-list.htm#MM

ECNs

    Pros:
  • You can usually get better bid/ask prices since they come from several sources
  • Variable spreads between bid and ask may give no spread or tiny spreads at times
  • If they are a true ECN, they will not be trading against you but will pass on your orders to a bank or another customer on the other end of the transaction.
  • You will be able to offer a price between the bid and ask with a chance of it getting filled
  • If they support Stop-Limit orders, you can prevent slippage during news by making sure that your order either gets filled at the price you want or not at all
  • Prices may be more volatile which will be better for scalping

Cons:

  • Many do not offer integrated charting
  • Many do not offer integrated news
  • Many of the trading platforms are less user-friendly
  • Because of variable spreads (between bid and ask,) it may be more difficult to calculate stop loss and profit target in pips beforehand.

Examples of some ECNs:

http://www.goforex.net/forex-broker-list.htm#ECN

Summary

It is important that you carefully look into the pros and cons of each broker before choosing the one which best suits your needs. You may also wish to have several broker accounts to mitigate the risks, and so that you can compare bid/ask prices and trade on the broker with the best prices for the direction you wish to trade. Because of the unregulated nature of forex, US brokers are not required to keep your money in an untouchable account that only you can have access to if they were to collapse. As customers of Refco (was one of the world's largest brokers) found out, their unprotected accounts made them unsecured creditors, and thus are less likely to get their money back than those who had given secured loans to Refco. What this means is that the customers' money was used to pay other creditors.

The moral of the story is this:

Deposit as little money with your broker as you need for trading, and withdraw your profits when they exceed a certain amount. Keep the rest of your trading capital in your own bank accounts which are probably government-insured.

Forex Broker Guide

Introduction

The following is a list of questions you may like to consider before opening an account. You can use this checklist to narrow down your selection of companies that fit your requirements. You may also wish to refer to the forex broker ratings page on this site to read about traders unique experiences with particular brokers.

The following links will also give you some background information on U.S. FCM's (Futures Commission Merchants).

Selected Financial Data for FCM's
NFA Background Affiliation Status
1. Word of Mouth

What do other traders say about the broker?
What is their customer service like?
2. Customer Protection

Is the broker regulated?
What regulatory organisation are they registered with and what protections does it afford you?
Are client funds insured against fraud?
Are client funds insured against bankruptcy?
3. Execution

What business model do they operate? i.e. Are they a Market Maker[?], ECN[?] or no-dealing desk broker[?]?
How fast is their order execution?
Are orders manually or automatically executed? [?]
What is the maximum trade size before you have to request a quote?
Are all clients trades offset?
4. Spread [?]

How tight is the spread?
Is it fixed or variable?
5. Slippage [?]

How much slippage can be expected in normal and fast moving markets?
6. Margin [?]

What is the margin requirement? e.g. 0.25% margin = max 400:1 leverage [?]), 0.5% margin = max 200:1 leverage, 1% margin = max 100:1 leverage, 2% margin = max 50:1 leverage, etc.
Does the margin requirement change for different currency pairs or days of the week?
At what point will the broker issue a margin call?
Is it the same for standard and mini accounts? [?]
7. Commissions

Do they charge commissions? (Most market makers' commissions are built into the spread)
8. Rollover Policy [?]

Is there a minimum margin requirement in order to earn rollover interest?
What are the swap rates like for going long or short in a particular currency pair?
Are there any other conditions for earning rollover interest?
9. Trading Platform

How intuitive and functional is it to use?
Are there many disconnections during trading hours?
How reliable is it during fast moving markets and news announcements?
How many different currency pairs can you trade?
Do they offer an Application Programming Interface (API) to allow you to automate your trading system?
Does it offer any other special features? (e.g. One click dealing, trading from the chart, trailing stops, mobile trading etc.)
10. Trading Account

What is the minimum balance required to open an account?
What is the minimum trade size?
Can you adjust the standard lot size traded? [?]
Can you earn interest on the unused margin balance in your account?

GBP/USD Analysis - Keep An Eye On The EMA (200)

If you draw a daily chart of the GBP/USD pair and plot a 200 day exponential moving average, ie the EMA (200), you will see that this pair is now trading below this key indicator. So therefore you could argue that it's now technically in a downward trend, particularly as the Supertrend indicator is now red (indicating a bearish trend).

However the point I want to make is that it's worth paying attention to how the price reacts when it comes close to this indicator. You can already see that the price touched the EMA (200) on 30th September and 8th October. However despite briefly moving a few points above this indicator, the price quickly fell back downwards again, so this proved to be a major area of resistance.
So with the price starting to move upwards again in recent days, it's worth watching to see what happens if it does go on to test the EMA (200) indicator once more. The current price at the time of writing is 1.5980 and the EMA (200) currently stands at 1.6090, so we're not far off.

If the daily candle closes above this indicator this could indicate that a new upward trend is about to start, but if it falls back a third time, which I think is highly likely, then I think the GBP/USD is going to head sharply lower.

Weekly Trading Update - 12-16 October 2009

Well it's been quite a strange trading week this week with the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pair unexpectedly posting some big gains, and some of the other pairs reversing their current trends. In the end I only ended up trading one position and that was on the GBP/JPY pair earlier in the week.

It was actually a short position, which may seem strange now, but at the time the GBP/JPY was still very much in a downward trend. After the EMAs crossed downwards on the 4 hour chart on Monday afternoon, I left an order to go short at exactly 142.00 (hoping for a decent pull-back) and this was subsequently triggered some time that evening.
I then spent several hours watching this pair go absolutely nowhere but thankfully it did eventually reach my initial 70 point target the following day. So I closed half the position, moved my stop loss down to break-even and let the other half run hoping it would move all the way down to the 1.40 area. Unfortunately this didn't turn out to be the case though and I was taken out at break-even.

Elsewhere there was a downward EMA crossover on the USD/JPY pair but I didn't fancy this one because the crossover candle was very long, which is never a good sign. There was also an upward EMA crossover on the EUR/USD pair which I should have traded in hindsight, but at the time I thought this pair was starting to run out of steam and would struggle to go any higher than 1.48.

So overall it's been a fairly disappointing week with just a small profit to show for my efforts, but at least the major currency pairs are putting in some strong moves. Hopefully this volatility will continue and we will see some better trading opportunities next week.

(If you would like full details of my main 4 hour trading strategy, you can access it for free when you subscribe to my newsletter. Simply fill in the short form above).

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Finding the Right Forex Trading Software

Forex Trading is quickly becoming the hottest niche in the trading world. The regular market has become so tumultuous that the best traders in the industry are walking around scratching their head on a regular basis. If you were ever going to get involved in forex trading, now is the time. However, you are going to have to find the right forex trading software to be successful.

If you have familiar with the regular market, you are quite aware of how quickly the market changes. This is even more so true in forex trading, but the patterns of the changes tend to be much more recognizable as you are dealing in currency.

Now while currency has a reputation of being extremely volatile, it also follows patterns over times that you can spot. The challenge is in being able to spot the trend in time to be able to take advantage of it. While there are still a few horses around that have the gift, few people can pick up trends like software can.

Unless you are able to stand at the computer 24 hours a day, it is unlikely that you are going to be able to be successful trading currency unless you have software that can do your tracking for you. While you are sleeping, the software is busy crunching numbers and evaluating trends for you. When a good trend shows up, you can have the program send you an alert that will allow you to verify the trend and take advantage of the trade.

Of course, even the best program is going to put up a dud every now and again. Sometimes there are false trends that even the computer will misread. The goal of course is to find the right software that will allow you to win on more trades than you lose. If you can do this, the odds are in your favor to make a nice profit over the long run.

Something else to keep in mind as you follow this market is to make sure that you wait for the trend to be verified before you jump on it. You do this so you don't get caught up in one of those false trends. By taking that little extra time, you are protecting yourself and your investment.

The big knock on doing this is that you are not going to be able to take advantage of the lowest support level if you are going long or the best resistance price if you are going short. In the end, you have to look at if the risk is worth the reward. By trading in this manner, you may not make the maximum profit on the deal, but you are much more assured of actually making a profit every time you do a deal.

Forex trading is a great way to lock up that future and to make a living in the current economy. If anyone tells you that it is going to be an overnight get rich quick deal, run away. What you need is a good, reliable program that spots good deals that you can make money from time and again.

Profitable Trades in Forex

Currency trading compared to trading stocks gives you big advantages.

The first real advantage is that the amount of money you need to trade is extremely small. With some brokers, as little as $100 allows you to control $10,000 of a currency. Compare that with purchasing stock on margin. If you were to purchase $10,000 in stock, you would have to have a minimum margin of $5,000. That's a huge difference and a giant advantage for you.

The second advantage to currency trading is that the currencies often trend for weeks, months or sometimes even years. Just catch the trend and you're on your way to some nice profits.

The third advantage is that currencies don't suddenly gap up or down with the news of the day as stocks do. There are no accounting problems, scandals, broker downgrades, earnings rumors, insider trading or take over bids. There are no new product announcements or balance sheet issues to worry about.

Another big advantage is that you can trade currencies 24 hours a day, almost 6 days a week.

Currencies trend, but they also fluctuate against each other. Since a pip, the smallest movement of a currency is $.00001and a pip in the mini contract represents $1 of profit or loss, then you can see that with very little movement, you can make or lose some real money.

Profitable trades in forex are relatively easy to come by, but that doesn't mean that as a newbie, you should just jump into the action. As with any money making endeavor there are the tricks of the trade. You have two ways to learn these tricks. You can open an account, start trading and learn your lessons the expensive way, by losing.

Or, you can let a seasoned trader show you what to do and when. In my view, the small amount you have to pay a seasoned trader to show you the ways of the currency market, especially with the convenience of the internet, is money well spent.

Here's where the choices get interesting. There are trading programs that use "bots" or automatic trading signals. The problem with bots is that the market changes its characteristics from time to time and automatic trades that work one day will destroy your account the next day. With bots, you're totally on your own when the eventual losing trades come your way.

In my opinion, the only way to build your trading knowledge is to let a seasoned pro show you what to do.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Determining the Best Forex Strategy Available

At some point or other in every beginner trader's journey, they inevitably ask themselves, "Am I using the best forex strategy possible?"

Normally, this question tends to be brought up just after a strategy they were using ended up failing on them, or they suffered a loss. Many times, it may even have been because of circumstances that really were beyond their control, rather than any mistake on their part, but it still brings about this question nonetheless.

To determine what forex strategy is best, there is only one method: Trial and error.

Truth be told, almost any (proven!) forex strategy does have the potential for profit. Some have a greater potential for profit, but these often come with extra risks attached (i.e. a greater potential for failure too). Similarly, some have a lesser potential for profit, but have minimal risks associated with them.

Which is better? Well, that's largely up to your personal preference.

Similarly, most every forex strategy can be put in one of two main categories: Long term or short term. Being as self-explanatory as they are, they need no introduction, and the truth is that you could even develop a strategy that combines both of these two categories.

Short term forex strategies tend to carry more potential for quick and substantial profits. That said, they also carry a risk of incurring a loss if the fluctuations don't go the way that you hoped they would. Also, these strategies require that you be constantly vigilant, and watch the market like a hawk so that you're able to pick out the ideal time to buy, and then sell.

On the other hand, long term forex strategies tend to be more stable. Due to the fact that you're expecting to hold onto the currency for an extended period of time, you can ride out any small fluctuations and sell it off at a time that seems most opportune to you. Furthermore, it is definitely more leisurely and requires less attentiveness.

Once again, it is a question of personal preference.

Honestly, the best advice that you will ever get is this: Try as many strategies as possible. If you can, experiment with new strategies through paper trading rather than actually risking your own money on a strategy that you're unfamiliar with.

If it works out a number of times and you actually find that you like that trading strategy, great. If it doesn't, well, you've lost nothing and can simply continue with your current strategy.

Insofar as the 'best forex strategy' available is concerned, don't fall for any of the so-called advice or 'secrets' that claim to have a surefire, no-fail, 100% guaranteed strategy. In the forex market, nothing is guaranteed.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Popular Forex Scams You Need to Know About

Forex Scams

A forex (or foreign exchange) scam is any corrupt trading system used to defraud traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the Forex exchange. One example of an convicted scammer is Russell Cline. In 1998 he founded a foreign currency trading firm based in Portland, Oregon and in 2003 he was charged in federal court with running a classic Ponzi scheme. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) has noted an increase in the amount of foreign exchange plots over the last few years as FX trading has increased in popularity. The information in this article will provide you with some useful tips to help you recognize some of the forex plots that are out there today.

Congress created the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 1974 as an independent agency with the mandate to regulate commodity futures and option markets in the United States. The stated mission of the CFTC is to protect market users and the public from manipulation, fraud and illegal practices related to the sale of commodity and financial futures and options, and to foster open, competitive, and sound financial futures and option markets.

CFTC is legally in charge of regulating the foreign exchange market of US. The CFTC works to ensure the integrity of the commodity and financial futures markets. It protects the public and market users from fraud, manipulation, and abusive practices while fostering an open marketplace for trading commodity futures as well as foreign currency. Some of the guidelines suggested by CFTC via its programs to avoid the forex schemes are looked at in this article.

If you plan on investing in forex, you need to be knowledgeable about the future market users and the trends which may influence the forex trading. With the knowledge of this, you will be able to ascertain the sincerity of the claims made by the forex product manufactures and thus stay away from the Forex Market Exchange plots.

It is highly essential that the potential traders involved in the forex trading are protected against forex ploys by sufficient legal proceedings; which is strongly suggested by CFTC. You need to be alert before stepping into any of the next levels in Forex trade or while purchasing the forex materials until there are enough facts to prove otherwise. There are some manufacturers who target potential traders from a particular area by offering special allowances to them.

Keep away from any forex trading involving Interbank Market because it is not very secure as it deals with currency transactions over a loose network. The interbank market is the top-level Forex trade where banks exchange different currencies. Another foretelling sign of possible forex ploys is when the concerned persons or companies try to coax you into transferring or sending money to them in a very short notice. Do not encourage unsolicited telephone calls in which companies or brokers claim they can provide you with the only best forex trading assistance available. Understanding more about futures trading will help you stay well informed about the Forex trade.

The only funds that should ever be used to speculate in foreign currency trading, or any type of highly speculative investment, are funds that represent risk capital; in other words, funds you can afford to lose without affecting your financial situation. Forex trading is risky, don't be pressured into an immediate decision and always use your common sense before embarking in any type of trade. Keep away from those brokerage companies who guarantee you a huge return and keep in mind that nothing in currency trading is risk free. Unfortunately Forex scams are increasing at an alarming rate; however you do not have to fall victim to their tactics.

Trading Your Money in the Foreign Exchange Markets Online

Here are some practical ways on how to invest your money on Forex Markets Online.

1. RESEARCH Forex involves markets around the world and it is by far the largest market in terms of traders. Foreign Exchange Markets trades huge amounts of money daily so before you try to trade your currency, it is important to know some information about it.

2. CONSULT Go to an appropriate and very trusted broker. Know how much you will need to start for your needed capital and how much your specific broker could give you leverage on your expected trades.

3. CURRENCIES Know the world currencies and keenly evaluate the changes of its exchange rates. If you can check daily, it would be much better. Create a chart of its fluctuations and analyze if it is worth investing. One suggestion would be sticking to one currency pair and try to understand its stability.

4. FOREX SYSTEMS Learn thoroughly the Forex systems to know when is the best time to start and end a specific trade.

5. FOREX PLATFORMS A forex platform is a computer program that serves as an avenue of trading information between the trader and the broker. You could download a free web based online forex platform. Start with a demo account and not real money. Practice makes perfect. And when you think that you are confident enough and consistent "profit maker" in your demo account, then try out for the "real thing". Just go with a micro account first to be sure.

6. ENROLL FOR A FINANCIAL CLASS If you have the time, why not enroll for a business or financial class? In this way, you will be able to understand the market more. You will learn some strategies and ways and successfully apply them since some of these classes let you try out the forex market for real. Just remember that it is always better to be well equipped with knowledge and hard work rather that going for the forex market without some information and leaving empty handed.

REMINDERS:

Get a crash course about financial trading first.

Stay with one currency pair, you will likely understand the currencies if you will observe just one pair.

Always remember to start with a demo account in forex platforms. Practice first and see whether you will make good trades or not.

Do not go and start right away with real money. You will likely lose it if you are still not confident and making good trades with your demo account.

Study the downfall of other traders so that you will avoid the same mistake they did in their trades.

Many platforms online are being run by scam brokers so be very careful especially if you would start trading with real money. Go for those that are well-known and have a stable reputation.

Lastly, invest with small amount of money first. Try to test the market and see if you will be profiting or not. The more money you invest, the more you would likely lose. Just stick to this and you will not lose your way.

The Do's and Don'ts for a Currency Exchange Trader

Being a currency exchange trader has it's own ups and downs. It is a tough job but for the persistent, it can be a very successful and worthwhile business to pursue. Most people who go into trading think that it is simply a game of numbers. But the thing is, currency trading involves a keen eye for detail, forecasting, and a general experience on niche markets to achieve the level of success that might possibly make you financially free in the long run. Currency exchange trading is a dynamic environment and it thrives on successes and failures for it to continually evolve as an industry and as a profitable business.

Do's In Becoming a Currency Exchange Trader

One of the most important things you need to consider when going into the currency trading business is to specialize first in a single or a couple of currencies. Concentrate first on the major currencies which are widely used in the market. This way, you can get to observe upfront the changing trends that happen and what specific events can trigger changes in the value of some currencies. It's easier to conduct your business and learn at the same time if you don't put too much on your plate. This would also allow you to observe your fellow traders and how brokers move around the industry.

Another important thing you need to consider is continuous learning. Utilize all possible venues for learning about forex. Do not just concentrate too much on what you know and what other people around you inform you. Seek the needed information on your own. There are plenty of free online training courses that you can look for and if you want, you can also subscribe to those conducted by foreign experts. Try joining online forums too so you can get in touch with different types of currency exchange trader. You can also post your queries and give you inputs on forex related topics there.

Don'ts in Becoming a Currency Exchange Trader

Once you get yourself into the game, you should understand that forex trading success does not happen overnight. In the beginning you may need to scout for business as thoroughly as possible. Also, not all business ventures will prove to be a success. Not all trades can indeed be a good one. This is why you need to learn and utilize as much forex trading methods as you can because it will help you understand what and what does not work for you. Patience is indeed an important trait to have.

Another thing you should avoid when trading in forex are scam programs. There are lots of applications popping up these days that swear to deliver the results you desire. Aside from the usual forex automated systems, there are also those called as forex robots which help keep your system running 24/7 thus allowing you to focus on other things beyond currency trading. Check the eligibility of the developers first before you purchase or download even if it is for free.

Why You Should Trade Foreign Currency Online

To make it easier for you to get into forex, you should definitely trade foreign currency online. Gone are the days when you have to do it in the old ways, phoning up some people just so you can get a rough list of the people whom you can talk to and do some business with. Through the internet, you also get to meet more business folks like you and eventually get to expand your business even further. The internet has indeed made itself a useful thing not just for personal purposes but also for business endeavors such as foreign currency trading.

What You Gain When You Trade Foreign Currency Online

First off is that you can boost your way to the top much faster if you are still a beginner. There are plenty of forex resources online which you can use to amp up your knowledge. If you find yourself still in a rut and trying to make your way into this whole new forex career, you can also opt to invest in some forex online courses so you can conveniently learn more about the business. Anyway, most of these online courses are on flexible schedules so you don't have to worry about it interfering with other things you have to do.

Another advantage is that it is easier for you to connect to people from around the world when you trade foreign currency online. You no longer have to worry about time differences as well because there are certain forex systems which you can use to help automate your business. These forex systems often come as a software package which allows you to run your business on 24/7 or autopilot mode. Most of them are fairly easy to learn, all it takes is an established familiarity in forex trading. You can also choose to take video tutorials which can be accessed for free.

Where to Trade Foreign Currency Online

Because forex has just boomed into this new phenomenal business endeavor, many websites have begun to pop online all offering a convenient platform for doing the trade. However, you should exercise due responsibility in making sure you don't end up with the wrong platforms to trade in. Don't sign up for anything yet without making sure you are in good hands. The internet has also made it easier now to track those websites which are nothing but scams or would only end up phishing or getting your details for spamming attacks.

Check out forums and read on the recommended websites from other forex traders. There's no need to worry since most of these forums are free anyway and would even allow you to read discussions although you won't be able to post your replies or create new threads unless you register. You should also take some time to read the blogs of established forex traders and brokers since they are also keeping an eye on the market so you can expect them to give you the latest news on online platforms.

Make money with forex trading but avoid scams

Forex trading, which is the popular short form for Foreign exchange trading is one of the fastest trading platforms that involve high stakes investment. Foreign exchange investment is normally termed as forex trading because the time period for which people hold their assets is too less that it is best explained as a trade rather than investment. Forex is a highly volatile market and this increases the risk too. But the main factor that distinguishes forex from other forms of trading markets like stock markets or gold market is the amount of leverage involved. One has to be very careful while trading at a higher leverage ratio. In forex market traders deal in thousands of dollars worth currency through an actual investment of a far smaller denomination. This ratio between the amount deposited and the amount actually leveraged by the original investment is known as the leverage ratio and this determines the actual risk involved in the trade. This high risk factor is naturally associated with high profitability.

At higher leverage ratio the traders experience more risk but consequently enjoy the opportunity of wining higher profits if the price of a currency moves in the favorable direction. This typical nature of forex market has given rise to numerous forex trading scams that has been deeply influencing the trading society since the past few years. Forex trading became popular among common men since the introduction on online trading platforms. Until then forex market was considered as a monopoly of international banks and government institutions. With the popularity of online trading business scamming became more widespread. Forex trading is in fairly good demand and the nature of its trade has spread its popularity as an instant moneymaking venture. Even novice traders having hardly any previous trading experience in any other form of financial market have stepped up to invest in forex market. One of the major reasons for this phenomenon is the undue hype generated by various online trading sites that are trying to make some quick money out of this inexperienced trader's ignorance. If you search for forex trading options in the internet, you will find hundreds of online financial management site or online trading sites that guarantee incredible profits within an incredibly short span of time. This can only happen in forex market; however, investors are not realizing that such unbelievably high profits are not a common occurrence in any form of market. And forex is a market that has least regulations. Its size and liquidity makes it difficult for any government or financial group to regulate and monitor its activity. Thus further allows for the scammers to play with the money of ignorant traders.

There are also many trading softwares that are available nowadays which promise profitable forex day trading. Most of these softwares are sold online and many buyers are being cheated by such equipments that hardly bring any form of revenue.

Forex trading is profitable but one has to study the market for a certain period of time and understand that there is no instant method to become rich overnight through this business.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Forex Trading System: Choosing between Mechanical and Discretionary Systems

There are basically two types of Forex trading systems, mechanical and discretionary systems. The trading signals that come out of mechanical systems are mainly based off technical analysis applied in a systematic way. On the other hand, discretionary systems use experience, intuition or judgment on entries and exits. But which one produces better results? Or more importantly, which one fits better your trading style? These are the answers we will try to answer on this article.

We will first analyze the pros and cons about each system approach.

Mechanical systems

Advantages


This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently.
It has very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isn’t.
Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.

Disadvantages

Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data.

The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same.

A system that worked successfully the past year doesn’t necessary mean it will work this year.

Discretionary systems

Advantages


Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions.
Trading decisions are based on experience.

Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.

Disadvantages

They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made.

It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way.

At early stages this can be dangerous.

Now, which approach is better for Forex traders? The one that fits better your personality. For instance, if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment won’t play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.

If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.

On the other hand, if you are a disciplined trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade. But the market suddenly starts trending up pretty strongly, then you could move your target to say 100 pips.

Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds his/her setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get in the market, and so on.

I am a discretionary trader. The main reason I chose a discretionary system is that my trades are based on price behavior, and as you already know, the price behaves similar to the past, but it is never identical, therefore the outcome of every trade is unknown. However, I do have rigid rules on my system, certain conditions have to be met before I even think in getting in a trade. This keeps me out of trouble, once my setup is present and in accordance with the rules I have set, then I closely watch the price behavior and finally decide whether it is a good opportunity or not.

Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:


  1. You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system.
  2. You also need to have some rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them.
  3. Take your time to build the perfect system for you. It’s not easy and requires time and hard work, but at the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results.
  4. Before going live, try it on a demo account or even on a small account (I will go for the second option, since psychological barriers will be present).

How to take a loss

There are quite a few books written on how to make money in the market. Some of them are even written by people who have made money as traders! What you don't see often, however, are books or articles written on how to lose money. "Cut your losers and let your winners run" is commonsensical advice, but how do you determine when a position is a loser? Interestingly, most traders I have seen don't formulate an answer to this question when they put on a position. They focus on the entry, but then don't have a clear sense of exit-especially if that exit is going to put them into the red.


One of the real culprits, I have to believe, is in the difficulty traders have in separating the reality of a losing trade from the psychological sense of feeling like a loser. At some level, many traders equate losing with being a loser. This frustrates them, depresses them, makes them anxious-in short, it interferes with their future decision-making, because their P & L is a blank check written against their self-esteem. Once a trader is self-focused and not market focused, distortions in decision-making are inevitable.


A particularly valuable section of the classic book Reminiscences of a Stock Operator describes Livermore 's approach to buying stock. He would sell a quantity and see how the stock responded. Then he would do that again and again, testing the underlying demand for the issue. When his sales could not push the market down, then he would move aggressively to the buy side and make his money.


What I loved about this methodology is that Livermore's losses were part of a grander plan. He wasn't just losing money; he was paying for information. If my maximum position size is ten contracts in the ES and I buy the highs of a range with a one-lot, expecting a breakout, I am testing the waters. While I am not potentially moving the market in the way that Livermore might have, I still have begun a test of my breakout hypothesis. I then watch carefully. How are the other averages behaving at the top ends of their range? How is the market absorbing the activity of sellers? Like any good scientist, I am gathering data to determine whether or not my hypothesis is supported.


Suppose the breakout does not materialize and the initial move above the range falls back into the range on some increased selling pressure. I take the loss on my one-lot, but then what happens from there?


The unsuccessful trader will respond with frustration: "Why do I always get caught buying the highs? I can't believe "they" ran the market against me! This market is impossible to trade." Because of that frustration-and the associated self-focus-the unsuccessful trader does not take any information away from that trade.


In the Livermore mode, however, the successful trader will see the losing one-lot as part of a greater plan. Had the market broken nicely to the upside, he would have scaled into the long trade and likely made money. If the one-lot was a loser, he paid for the information that this is, at the very least, a range-bound market, and he might try to find a spot to reverse and go short in order to capitalize on a return to the bottom end of that range.


Look at it this way: If you put on a high probability trade and the trade fails to make you money, you have just paid for an important piece of information: The market is not behaving as it normally, historically does. If a robust piece of economic news that normally sends the dollar screaming higher fails to budge the currency and thwarts your purchase, you have just acquired a useful bit of information: There is an underlying lack of demand for dollars. That information might hold far more profit potential than the money lost in the initial trade.


I recently received a copy of an article from Futures Magazine on the retired trader Everett Klipp, who was dubbed the "Babe Ruth of the CBOT". Klipp distinguished himself not only by his fifty-year track record of trading success on the floor, but also by his mentorship of over 100 traders. Speaking of his system of short-term trading, Klipp observed, "You have to love to lose money and hate to make money to be successful.It's against human nature what I teach and practice. You have to overcome your humanness."


Klipp's system was quick to take profits (hence the idea of hating to make money), but even quicker to take losses (loving to lose money). Instead of viewing losses as a threat, Klipp treated them as an essential part of trading. Taking a small loss reinforces a trader's sense of discipline and control, he believed. Losses are not failures.


So here's a question I propose to all those who enter a high-probability trade: "What will tell me that my trade is wrong, and how could I use that information to subsequently profit?" If you're trading well, there are no losing trades: only trades that make money and trades that give you the information to make money later.

Forex Strategy: Trading with Stochastics

Stochastics are amongst the most popular technical indicators when it comes to Forex Trading. Unfortunately most traders use them incorrectly. In this article we will review the correct way to use this popular technical indicator.


George Lane developed this indicator in the late 1950s. Stochastics measure the current close relative to the range (high/low) over a set of periods.


Stochastics consist of two lines:


%K - Is the main line and is usually displayed as a solid line
%D - Is simply a moving average of the %K and is usually displayed as a dotted line


There are three types of Stochastics: Full, fast and slow stochastics. Slow stochastics are simply a smother version of the fast stochastics, and full stochastics are even a smother version of the slow stochastics.


Interpretation:

Buy when %K falls below the oversold level (below 20) and rises back above the same level.

Sell when %K rises above de overbought level (above 80) and falls back below the same level.

The interpretation above is how most traders and investors use them; however, it only works when the market is trendless or ranging. When the market is trending, a reading above the overbought territory isn't necessary a bearish signal, while a reading below de oversold territory isn't necessary bullish signal.

Trending market

When the market is trending is necessary to adapt the oscillator to the same conditions: When the market is trending up, then the signals with the higher probability of success are those in direction of the trend "Buy signals", on the other hand when the market is trending down, selling signals offer the lowest risk opportunities.


Thus when the market is trending up, we will only look for oversold conditions (when the stochastics fall below the oversold level [below 20] and rises back above the same level) to get ready to trade, and in the same way, when the market is trending down we will only look for overbought conditions (when the stochastics rise above de overbought level [above 80] and falls back below the same level.

Taking all overbought/oversold signals during a trending market will lead us to many whipsaws. If you are not comfortable with the number of signals given, try expanding your trading to other currency pairs.

Trend-less market

During a ranging market we could use the interpretation explained above to trade off stochastics.

Divergence

Divergence trades are amongst the most reliable trading signals in the Forex market. A divergence occurs either when the indicator reaches new highs/lows and the market fails to do it or the market reaches new highs/lows and the indicator fails to do it. Both conditions mean that the market isn't as strong as it used to be giving us opportunities to profit from the market.

Stochastics can also be used to trade off divergences.

Price behavior

A price behavior can be incorporated into any kind of system or Forex strategy. When using divergences or overbought/oversold condition with a price behavior approach, the probability of success of our signals increases enormously. Why? Because price dictates at the end, how all indicators will behave, it also gives us a lot of information about the probable direction it will take in the future.


I hope this article helps you become a better trader.

Forex Broker: Choosing the right Forex Broker

Sometimes it's hard to make a decision on which Forex broker to open our trading account, there are just too many of them. Most of them have different features, capabilities, weaknesses and advantages, for this reason I have created a checklist that can help you decide the broker to use in your Forex adventure.

1. Is it regulated?

The first question you have to ask yourself is: is the broker I want to use Regulated ? There must be no doubt about this first point. All regulated brokers must submit financial reports to regulatory authorities, and when they fail to do it, authorities have the right to fine them or terminate their membership. This enforces Forex brokers to keep transparent financial reports.


The brokers must be regulated by their local regulatory authorities, for instance, for brokers based in the US , they must be regulated by the NFA (National Futures Association) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), Swiss based brokers must be regulated by the FDF (Swiss Federal Department of Finance) and so on.

Also when a Forex broker is regulated allows investors to dispute any resolution, increasing the investor protection.

2. Trading Conditions

This point refers to the features of the trading platform and the trading conditions with the chosen broker. Amongst the most important factors are:


Spread - Obviously the smaller the spread on currency pairs the better the conditions are for investors and traders.


Platform execution - Trading execution refers to how fast and consistent are the execution of trades. Some brokers guarantee fast and transparent executions during normal market conditions.


Fractional trading - Some brokers allow investors and traders to trade on a fractional basis, instead of trading full lots "100,000 units" or "300,000 units", they allow you to trade "163,345 units" or "325,911 units". This is very helpful for trades risking certain percentage of their balance on each trade.


Safety of funds - We need to make sure our trading funds are kept in a segregated account or at least insured.


Opens versus Closes

Although there is no such thing as a 5-minute open or a 5-minute close, the concept is a simple one to understand. The first price tick of a 5-minute period is arbitrarily defined as the open, and the last tick of the 5-minute time segment is arbitrarily defined as the 5-minute close.

The relationship is a simple one. It is based on the well-established pattern for closing prices in a bull trend to be higher than opening prices and for closing prices in a bear trend to be lower than opening prices. By comparing a Moving Average of the 5-, 10-, or 15-minute openings with a Moving Average of the 5-, 10-, or 15-minute closings, we can quickly detect trend changes either before they occur or very early in their inception.

Figure 13-4a and 13-4b illustrate the ideal signals and relationship to which I am referring using a 5-minute chart of S&P futures. Examine my buy and sell signals in relation to price trend changes during the day. Figure 13-5 shows the same oscillator combination and signals on a Swiss franc chart.

As you can see from the illustrations, the signals are very reliable and tend to signal major moves. I call this method the O/C oscillator (O/C). Although the O/C method is wonderful for catching large intraday price swings, it does have its limitations which I will discuss later on. Before doing so, however, Ill review the construction of the O/C oscillator, and then Ill give you rules for using it.

Construction of the O/C for IntraDay Trading

The O/C is constructed as follows:

1. Use two smoothed Moving Averages (MAs) as follows:

a. A smoothed Moving Average of the opening prices consisting of 6 to 10 periods on 5-, 10-, 15-, or 20-minute data.

b. A second smoothed Moving Average which consists of closing prices of 12 to 24 period on 5-, 10-, 15-, or 20 minute data.

2. Buy and sell on crossovers of the two MA lines. When the MA of the close crosses over the MA of the open, a buy is signaled, and when the MA of the close falls below the MA of the open, a sell is signaled.

3. You will need to adjust the lengths used as a function of the time span you are using (i.e., 5-, 10-, 15-, or 20-minute data) and the volatility of the market you are following. There are no hard and fast rules for doing this. You will need to use your judgment; however, after you work with this method for a while, you will become quite adept at making the proper selections. (Formula for smoothed MA is in appendix at end of book.)

4. An important issue which you will need to deal with is the amount of the crossover. In other words, you will need to determine how much of a crossover will be sufficient to generate a signal in either direction. In this respect consider Figure 13-6 As you can see, the minor crossovers, which do occur, are not reliable. They must be sufficiently large. You will need to determine the crossover amount or threshold. You can do this fairly easily be examining recent signals. Be sure to monitor the O/C performance closely.

What is Scalping?

Although the term scalping most likely originated in the heritage of the wild, wild American West, the contemporary trend for outrage at the mere mention of ethnic issues prompts me to side-step the derivation of this term. Simply stated, the scalper attempts to trade futures markets for only several ticks, taking advantage of fairly narrow trading ranges in order to "buy the bid and sell the offer". The scalper, who is usually a floor trader, attempts to capitalize on relatively quiet times in the markets, buying at the prevailing price (the bid price) or hopefully at one or two ticks below the anticipated fair price and selling at a slightly higher price or what is called the offer price. The best way I can drive home the point of what it is that scalpers do is to state succinctly that scalpers attempt to buy at wholesale and sell at retail.

As you can understand, the price markup from wholesale to retail, although very high in some businesses, is not too high in the scalping business. Frequently, the markup amounts to only one or two price ticks. However, at $30 or more per price tick in Treasury bond futures, the prospects for profitable scalping are considerable. If the trader is paying very small commissions ($14 or lower per trade), then a good portion of each price tick per contract is profit. What the scalper may give up in the way of price movement, he or she can compensate for in terms of position size. From the scalpers point of view, a trade of two ticks profit on 500 contracts works out to 1000 ticks-1000 ticks after approximately $15 in costs (which is a very high cost for the floor trader) works out to roughly $16,000 profit. Assuming a commission rate of $8 and often much, much lower for the floor trader, the profits are even more substantial.

It is now possible for traders who are not on the floor of the various exchanges to trade in a fashion very similar to what floor traders do when they scalp the markets. Using some of the techniques discussed in this book, the average trader who is willing to sit at the computer screen and watch the market tick-by-tick all day long can scalp in a fashion similar to floor traders. During the last few years, many floor traders, realizing that scalping is possible without being on the floor of the exchange, have left to become upstairs traders. An upstairs trades as if he or she were on the floor but is, in actuality, trading from an office, usually located in the exchange building.

Rules for Scalping

In order to scalp the markets effectively, you must apply certain rules which do not necessarily apply to other forms of Day Trading. You will need to know and observe these rules carefully and consistently if you plan to become a successful scalper:

1. To compensate for the relatively small size of moves which you will attempt to be capturing as a scalper, you will need to trade considerably larger positions.

2. If you are not willing to accept the risk of trading larger positions, then you cannot scalp the markets in a fashion which makes trading worth your while. After all, if you plan to scalp bonds for one or two ticks at a time three or four times a day, and if you are unsuccessful in your efforts one or two times a day, then the bottom line of your trading on a one-contract basis may only be one tick. Subtracting from this commission costs, your Scalping will prove to be a losing proposition or a minimally profitable venture, above and beyond what you have lost in terms of time. Therefore, it is necessary for you to make a commitment to larger positions, perhaps 5 or 10 contracts at a time, and to increase your position size once you have mastered the various Scalping techniques.

3. To be a successful scalper, you will need to take your losses as well as your profits very quickly. If, for example, you are long T-bonds at $105.20 expecting a move to $105.22, then you must enter orders to sell at $105.22, since you have set yourself a two-tick target. To expect $105.23 or $105.24 would not be consistent with your Scalping goals. The idea is to take numerous small profits of several ticks on large positions throughout the day. Only by following this goal will you achieve success as a scalper.

4. You must pay close attention to the market you are trading at all times. This means that you will be able to trade only one market at a time, since you will need to be at the screen watching every tick. If you have a multiple screen monitor, it may be possible to scalp more than one market at a time; however, I think that pragmatically this would be difficult. In addition to these rules, which are more operational rather than methodological, important techniques are explained in the next section.

Suggested Methods of Forex Scalping

To scalp a market effectively, you must first isolate a specific trading range which is clearly defined in terms of support and resistance or in terms of bid offer. As you know, the bid is the price at which buyers are willing to buy; the offer price is a price at which sellers are willing to sell. In most cases, there is a spread, or difference between the two, sometimes of one tick in size and other times several ticks in size, depending upon the market. In Treasury bonds, the bid offer spread is usually one tick. Therefore, by knowing the bid and the offer, the scalper will attempt to buy at the bid price and sell at the offer price, otherwise known as buying the bid and selling the offer.

Here is a suggested technique for taking advantage of the bid-offer spread. Assume that Treasury bond futures have been trading in a fairly narrow trading range after the initial opening volatility has been digested. The market begins to trade between $103.15 and $103.17, a two-tick range. As long as the market continues to trade in this range (and this could change at virtually and time), you will want to buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the higher end of the range. In order to do this, you will enter specific price orders to buy at $103.15 fill or kill. Within several minutes, you will know whether you have been filled. If you have been filled, you will then enter an opposite order to sell, perhaps at $105.16 or $105.17 which is within the asking price range.

This is the very basic technique of buying at the bid and selling at the offer. As you can see, it is considerably more difficult to do off the floor than it is on the trading floor, since floor traders know immediately whether they have been filled without having to wait for a third party to confirm the price execution. The on-the-floor trader, who must await confirmation of order fill. Depending upon the firm with which you are doing business, the use of fill-or-kill orders may, if used too frequently, alienate brokers as well as floor traders. Therefore, the fill-or-kill order should be used only when absolutely necessary or in cases where the firm you are dealing with has no objections.

Another technique would be to use a price order and to give the market sufficient time to fill your order. In this case, I recommend working with a brokerage firm that will report your fills back to you as quickly as possible. The problem with Scalping away from the pit is not knowing whether you have been filled.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Understanding the Basics of Currency Trading

Investors and traders around the world are looking to the Forex market as a new speculation opportunity. But, how are transactions conducted in the Forex market? Or, what are the basics of Forex Trading? Before adventuring in the Forex market we need to make sure we understand the it, otherwise we will find ourselves lost where we less expected. This is what this article is aimed to, to understand the basics of currency trading.

What is traded in the Forex market?

The instrument traded by Forex traders and investors are currency pairs. A currency pair is the exchange rate of one currency over another. The most traded currency pairs are:

USD/CHF: Swiss franc

GBP/USD: Pound

USD/CAD: Canadian dollar

USD/JPY: Yen

EUR/USD: Euro

AUD/USD: Aussie

These six currency pairs generate up to 85% of the overall volume in the Forex market. So, for instance, if a trader goes long on the Euro, she or he is simultaneously buying the EUR and selling the USD. If the same trader goes short or sells the Aussie, she or he is simultaneously selling the AUD and buying the USD.

The first currency of each currency pair is referred as the base currency, while second currency is referred as the counter or quote currency. Each currency pair is expressed in units of the counter currency needed to get one unit of the base currency. If the price or quote of the EUR/USD is 1.2545, it means that 1.2545 US dollars are needed to get one EUR.

Bid/Ask Spread

All currency pairs are commonly quoted with a bid and ask price. The bid (always lower than the ask) is the price your broker is willing to buy at, thus the trader should sell at this price. The ask is the price your broker is willing to sell at, thus the trader should buy at this price.

EUR/USD 1.2645/48 or 1.2645/8

The bid price is 1.2645

The ask price is 1.2648

A Pip

A pip is the minimum incremental move a currency pair can make. A pip stands for price interest point. A move in the EUR/USD from 1.2545 to 1.2560 equals 15 pips. And a move in the USD/JPY from 112.35 to 113.40 equals 105 pips.

Margin Trading (leverage)

In contrast with other financial markets where you require the full deposit of the amount traded, in the Forex market you require only a margin deposit. The rest will be granted by your broker.

The leverage provided by some brokers goes up to 400:1. This means that you require only 1/400 or .25% in balance to open a position (plus the floating gains/losses.) Most brokers offer 100:1, where every trader requires 1% in balance to open a position.

The standard lot size in the Forex market is $100,000 USD.

For instance, a trader wants to get long one lot in EUR/USD and he or she is using 100:1 leverage.

To open such position, he or she requires 1% in balance or $1,000 USD.

Of course it is not advisable to open a position with such limited funds in our trading balance. If the trade goes against our trader, the position is to be closed by the broker. This takes us to our next important term.

Margin Call

A margin call occurs when the balance of the trading account falls below the maintenance margin (capital required to open one position, 1% when the leverage used is 100:1, 2% when leverage used is 50:1, and so on.) At this moment, the broker sells off (or buys back in the case of short positions) all your trades, leaving the trader "theoretically" with the maintenance margin.

Most of the time margin calls occur when money management is not properly applied.

How are the mechanics of a Forex trade?

The trader, after an extensive analysis, decides there is a higher probability of the British pound to go up. He or she decides to go long risking 30 pips and having a target (reward) of 60 pips. If the market goes against our trader he/she will lose 30 pips, on the other hand, if the market goes in the intended way, he or she will gain 60 pips. The actual quote for the pound is 1.8524/27, 4 pips spread. Our trader gets long at 1.8530 (ask). By the time the market gets to either our target (called take profit order) or our risk point (called stop loss level) we will have to sell it at the bid price (the price our broker is willing to buy our position back.) In order to make 40 pips, our take profit level should be placed at 1.8590 (bid price.) If our target gets hit, the market ran 64 pips (60 pips plus the 4 pip spread.) If our stop loss level is hit, the market ran 30 pips against us.

It’s very important to understand every aspect of forex trading. Start first from the very basic concepts, then move on to more complex issues such as Forex trading systems, trading psychology, trade and risk management, and so on. And make sure you master every single aspect before adventuring in a live trading account.